[page 133] [page 134] A [page 135] A [page 136] A [page 137] A [page 138] A [page 139] B [page 140] [page 141] |
Index to diagrams in Appendix 5A Reference is to group (see paragraph 5A.4) and serial number within group.
[page 142]
[page 143] Appendix 5B The number of educational psychologists estimated in 1965 to be needed by thirty of the thirty-two areas approached by the Underwood Committee and equivalent estimate by all authorities in England and Wales
The Underwood enquiry 5B.1 The Underwood Report describes the enquiry undertaken by the Committee as follows: 379. As we said at the beginning of this chapter, we decided to make a purely practical estimate of what should be attempted during the next decade. As a preliminary to this, we addressed an enquiry to the chief education officers of a 1 in 3 sample of the 96 local education authorities which had a child guidance service in 1952. Each chief education officer was asked, after any local consultation deemed appropriate, to give his opinion, based on recent experience, of the number of child guidance staff required to deal adequately with all the children in his authority's area who need to attend a child guidance clinic. The range of estimates was wide, but the majority were bunched fairly closely together. The staff estimated to be needed for the 32 areas was (expressed as full-time equivalents) 31 psychiatrists, 61 educational psychologists and 74 psychiatric social workers, giving a ratio of 1 : 2 : 21.The maintained school population for the thirty-two areas was almost 1½ million. The working party enquiry 5B.2 We have had access to the records of the Underwood survey, but we have had to omit two of the original thirty-two areas from our calculations because they are no longer identifiable and their school populations cannot be determined. Our calculations have therefore been based on thirty of the areas* whose maintained primary and secondary school population in 1965 was 1,646,000. 5B.3 The full-time equivalent of 82.25 educational psychologists were in post in May 1965, or 0.50 for each 10,000 children. This was slightly above the 'realistic objective' of 2 : 45,000 set by the Underwood Committee for 1965; the Report remarked in paragraph 381 that the objective entailed on average a doubling of the service in the thirty-two authorities. Taking into account posts vacant in May 1965, the total establishment was for 101.25 educational psychologists. 58.4 Furthermore, we asked each chief education officer to give an estimate of the staff which would be needed for the duties which, in his opinion, educational psychologists employed by the local authority might at present be carrying out;** duties not the responsibility of the local education authority were included if they were thought to be appropriate for educational psychologists. The resulting total desired establishment needed by the thirty areas was 168.25, the equivalent of 1.02 educational psychologists for every 10,000 schoolchildren. Equivalent estimate by all authorities in England and Wales 5B.5 The results of our enquiry to all chief education officers are shown in Table 2B.2; see also Figure 2.1. The full-time equivalent of 326-4 educational psychologists were employed by all local education authorities in England and Wales in May 1965, and local education authorities told is of the full-time equivalent of eighty-eight posts which were unfilled at that date. There was therefore a total of 414 posts for educational psychologists in England and Wales, or one for every 18,700 schoolchildren. Some authorities told us that if vacancies on their existing establishments could have been filled, further posts would have been approved'; the total number of posts therefore underestimates the number actually required. In response to the enquiry about desired establishment. it was estimated that an additional 205 posts were needed, giving a total establishment of 619.6 for England and Wales or one for every 11.450 schoolchildren in maintained primary and secondary schools. If children in all schools are taken into account the ratio is 1 : 12,500 schoolchildren (see paragraph 5.26). *By 1965 these areas comprised fourteen counties with a maintained primary and secondary school population of 1,084,704 and twenty-one county boroughs with 561,305 children.
**See Appendix 2A. [page 144] Appendix 5C Manpower: calculations of the number of postgraduate training places for educational psychologists estimated to be needed to achieve a target of 1 : 10.000 schoolchildren
Introduction 5C.1 We describe our manpower calculations in this appendix. Education services, although numerous, effectively form a single employer for educational psychologists; in relation to the services, educational psychologists similarly form a single class of professional employee. Calculations of the kind that we have made might have been less indicative if a more complex approach to this relation between employer and employees had had to be adopted. The simplification of treating employing authorities as if they were a single entity nevertheless leaves some things out of account. Differences between authorities both now and in the future are disregarded, for instance; at present differences are large as Appendix 5A shows. Even so, projections of future needs require a relatively large number of factors to be distinguished, inter-relations between them to be specified, and values for them to be estimated. The effort to be explicit, however, has the following advantages: (a) more and less influential factors can be distinguished, (b) the consequences of different values for influential factors can be explored, (c) recommendations can be made and decisions taken with an awareness of margins of error, and (d) the process by which projections have been made can be re-evaluated and refined at a later stage when more information has become available, provided that steps have been taken to collect it. 5C.2 The following factors are relevant to the present case of resources for training psychologists for the education services. (1) Size, and trends in the size, of the population to be served, since the numbers required depend on the size of this population.
[page 145] (5) Length of working life, from entering service at the end of training to normal retirement. for working careers that are uninterrupted; age of retirement for those in service at the start, (3) above.
5C.3 Factors (1) to (8) are all variables, with the exception of (3), the data for which can be ascertained. Different values are possible in all the other cases and values for them have therefore to be determined from other sources. Once values have been assigned to them it becomes possible (a) to determine the size of the effective annual inputs from the starting points of expanded postgraduate training arrangements (7) which will enable the target ratio (2) to be achieved at the date set (8); or alternatively, (b) to examine the consequences of particular expansions at particular times on the date (8) at which the target ratio will be attained. It is also possible to explore the very long-term consequences for the size of the group that is being produced on the assumption that none of the other factors changes; in the long term any annual input will then come into equilibrium with the combined output to normal retirement and migration. Clearly some of factors (1) to (8) cannot be fixed completely but can be expected to vary in the future in ways that are not entirely predictable: factors (1), (4) and (6) are cases in point. Exploring long-term consequences nevertheless enables the scale implied by the choice of values for the several factors to be determined and, especially, indicates how far further expansion, or contraction, of training resources may need to be considered in the long term. This kind of evaluation is appropriate and necessary in spite of the approximations because training resources cannot readily be brought into being; nor, once created, can they readily be contracted again since relatively long-term commitments are made to the security in their careers of those who are appointed to run them, apart from commitments and investments of other kinds. 5C.4 'Effective annual inputs' from training courses into service, referred to in paragraphs 5C.2 and 5C.3 above, are not identical with the number of postgraduate training places available at any particular time, or with the numbers of students admitted to training, or even with the numbers of successful students who complete the courses. The following additional factors have to be considered in converting needs for a given effective annual input into terms of postgraduate training places. (9) The 'immediate migration rate' or proportion of successful students who, for whatever reasons, take other jobs as soon as they complete their training and do not become educational psychologists in the education services; they may in particular take other jobs at home or abroad for which their qualifications also fit them and which from time to time may be more attractive in terms of salaries and career prospects.
5C.5 Values for factors (9), (10) and (11) enable effective annual inputs to be converted into numbers of postgraduate training places needed. 5C.6 lastly, estimates of numbers of training places can be evaluated against sources of candidates for them in order to insure against the possibility of exceeding the supply of suitable candidates. 5C.7 We have considered all these points in arriving at our recommendation that training capacity should be trebled no later than 1975 (recommendation 5.R3 and paragraphs 5.56 to 5.65). How we have done so is discussed below. Values for the different factors (1) Population size and trend 5C.8 We have relied on the predictions of the school population made by the Department of Education and Science for 1 January in each of the years up to 1990 (Statistics of Education 1966, vol. 1, Table 44 'Pupils in School'. London: H.M.S.O. 1967). The forecast figures are up-dated by the Department each year, and the forecast from 1967 to 1 990 based on actual figures up to 1966 was the latest available to us. 5C.9 Table 44 of Statistics of Education 1966 includes separate forecasts for' Pupils in school' in ' (i) Maintained primary and secondary schools' and '(ii) All schools'. We have taken the figure for 'all schools', including the effect of eventually raising the school leaving age to 16, to be an estimate of the relevant population for the following reasons, discussed at various points in our Report: (a) we [page 146] Table 5C.1 Postgraduate training departments 1945-1965: places available, numbers of students and subsequent employment of successful students as local authority educational psychologists and otherwise [page 147] agree with the Underwood Committee that services should be available to all boys and girls (paragraphs 5.16 and 5.27); (b) services are already being provided for some pre-school children and for some young people who have left school; we expect services of these kinds to develop (Chapters 2 and 3), but the children and young people in question are not. in general, included in the figures for 'Pupils in school', except for some children aged from two to four years. Hence the larger figures for 'all schools' give an estimate of the relevant population which is still a conservative one. 5C.10 In order to examine very long-term consequences in the manner described in paragraph 5C.3, above, we have had to consider trends beyond 1990; hence it was necessary to extrapolate the population trend beyond the published forecast. Our assumption has been that the linear trend in the forecast for 1985-90 would continue; this assumption is conservative in the sense that the forecast trend for 1985-90 is markedly less than the current trend for 1966-71. Nevertheless, both the forecast trend for 1985-90 and our extrapolation of it could, of course, be very much in error in relation to unknown higher or lower birth-rates in the future. That this should be so is not an argument against examining such extrapolations for their implications, but is an argument for ensuring that calculations are repeated at sufficiently frequent intervals to enable policies to be adjusted. We believe it to be desirable that our calculations should be repeated at intervals of five years and essential that they should be repeated not later than 1978 (paragraph 5.57). (2) Target ratio 5C.11 We have concluded from our examination of the evidence that 1 : 10,000 should be adopted as the target ratio for educational psychologists to schoolchildren in the immediate future (paragraphs 5.24 to 5.29). We have noted that this ratio calls for more than twice the recent proportion of 1 : 24,000 (in 1965: paragraphs 5.58 and 5.23). We have also noted that 1 : 10,000 is still appreciably less than other ratios that have been recommended (paragraph 5.28). (3) Size and composition of group in service: starting date for calculations 5C.12 Our survey of all educational psychologists in post on 1 May 1965 is described in Chapter 2. It provided complete statistical information about the composition of the group, including numbers in each year of age (summarised in Figure 2.4; paragraph 2.21). and numbers of men and women (Figure 2.3; paragraph 2.20); 90% were employed full-time (Table 28.1; paragraph 2.14). 5C.13 We have taken 1 January 1965 to be the effective starting date for our calculations because forecasts of school population are given for 1 January each year in Statistics of Education 1966. We have disregarded the interval between 1 January and 1 May in 1965. 5C.14 All our calculations have been in terms of 'full-time equivalents'. Since the proportion working part-time was only 10% we have made no attempt to treat part-time appointments separately. As a consequence of the points discussed in paragraphs 5C.17 to 5C.19. below, the total of full-time equivalents at the effective starting date was 323 '8, rather than 326 (paragraph 2.14). (4) Input from existing postgraduate training courses 5C.15 The number of students who successfully completed their courses of postgraduate training in the summer of 1965 was twenty-three from twenty-nine training places; twenty of the successful students started work as educational psychologists in local education authorities (Table 5C.1). We have taken 20 to be the effective input at 1 January 1966 from courses ending in 1965. 5C.16 In 1965-66 the number of training places increased to thirty-six and this was also the number for 1966-67 (see paragraph 7.14). For the reasons discussed in paragraphs 5C.41 to 5C.48, below, we have taken 30 to be the 'effective annual input' of successful students into posts as educational psychologists from this number of training places. We have also taken 30 therefore to be the effective input at 1 January following courses ending in 1966 and 1967, and to be the effective annual input that would be sustained indefinitely if training arrangements were to continue as they were by 1966-67. (5) Length of working life to normal retirement: age of retirement 5C.17 I n order to make predictions about the potential size of an expanding group of employees it is essential to use information about length of working life for those who remain continuously in post until they retire. A refined approach to the calculations would be (a) to base them on estimates derived from records of the proportions entering service at different ages each year and retiring in each of the years between the minimum age for retirement and the compulsory upper limit; and, (b) to distinguish between men and women. This procedure was not open to us, primarily for the reason that too few educational psychologists have retired (see paragraph 2.21 and Table 5C.3). Furthermore, the proportions of men and women have been changing with a progressive trend towards a preponderance of men (paragraph 2.20 and Figure 2.3); [page 148] and, if our recommendations are adopted, the age of educational psychologists taking up their first appointment will be lower than it has been. 5C.18 We have therefore had to make our calculations in a different way, basing them on a median value of 35 years for length of working life. First, we have used age 60 as the age of normal retirement since continued service after a minimum age cannot be relied on and we lack any distributional data beyond that point. Secondly, we have taken age 25 as the median age on entry, basing this figure on our expectation that substantial numbers will in future start one or two years below this age, but that there will also continue to be those who start later, including small numbers aged 30 or more. 5C.19 In order to keep the calculations uniform the same age of retirement has been applied to the group in service at the effective starting date. 5C.20 Differential calculations for men and women have not been made. (6) 'Migration' rates 5C.21 By 'migration' we mean movement out of local authority service as an educational psychologist for any reason at any time before normal retirement. 5C.22 We have discussed migration to other kinds of work in our Report (paragraphs 5.39 to 5.49, 6.59 to 6.70 and 6.71). Some migration of this kind is inevitable, and some not only extends career prospects for individuals but, as we have argued, is of benefit to the education system as a whole (paragraph 6.71). 5C.23 It is necessary also to consider migration out of service for other reasons: marriage in the case of women, for instance, and early retirement. either voluntarily, or because of illness or death. 5C.24 Migration has a marked effect on the potential size of an expanding group, and migration rates are critical for the long-term build-up. A refined approach again would be the detailed one of considering men and women separately, and of taking account of relations between tendency to migrate and age and length of service, and of different occasions for migration. We have examined a number of these possibilities in all the ways that were open to us, but in general we have lacked evidence that. so far, there are significant differential tendencies, and sufficient data to warrant pursuing them in detail. 5C.25 The evidence that we have suggests that differences in the rates of migration between men and women are slight: many women who marry tend either to continue or to resume work at least part-time. We have some evidence that tendencies to migrate to other work may be somewhat higher from four to seven years after entering service, and also at ages in the later thirties when the top of present opportunities for promotion have been reached and new opportunities for more extended career prospects are sought; Table 5C.2 summarises evidence relating to these two points submitted to us by the Association of Educational Psychologists. 5C.26 We have therefore had recourse to other approaches to the question of migration. In particular, we have sought to estimate a single percentage rate which, applied to numbers. in service at any point in time, would reflect Table 5C.2 Ages and length of service of educational psychologists leaving full membership of the Association of Educational Psychologists during the period 30 June 1963 to 30 June 1967; ages of all educational psychologists in service in England and Wales on 1 May 1965 for comparison [page 149] tendency to migrate, which could be taken to be uniform over the whole length of working life, and which therefore could be compounded.* 5C.27 In arriving at a figure for migration rate we have considered evidence from two sources: (a) from the Association of Educational Psychologists for the four years between 1963 and 1967, and (b) from the postgraduate training departments for 1945-65 (Table 5C.1 ). 5C.28 Since membership in the Association of Educational Psychologists is open only to educational psychologists in post. migrants cease to be full members of the Association. Table 5C.3 shows the membership at 30 June from 1963-67 and reductions owing to migra- Table 5C.3 Changes in membership of the Association of Educational Psychologists, June 1963 to June 1967 tion. Migration rates range from -4,3% to -9,3% and those for the last three years all exceed -8%. 5C.29 The second source available to us was the data of Table 5C.1. Column 9 shows numbers of successful students in service on 1 May 1965 (column 8) as percentages of those who went into service on completion of training (column 6). Column 10 shows equivalent annual migration rates.** The nineteen values range from zero to -10.5% with a median value for 1945 of -2.5%. These calculations assume, however, that all those in post on 1 May 1965 had been continuously in service since the end of their course; this was not so in all cases. These figures therefore make too large an allowance for the compensating effects of a return to work by some, mainly married women, who have spent periods occupied in other ways. The data for anyone year are few. 5C.30 It seemed most reasonable, therefore, to adopt an intermediate value, to base calculations of effective annual inputs needed to achieve the target ratio by a target date on this working value, and then to investigate the consequences, with the effective annual inputs so determined, of taking lower and higher values for migration rate. Accordingly, -4% per annum has been taken as the basic working value; the consequences have been explored for values of -2% and -8%. (7) Dates for starting new postgraduate training arrangements 5C.31 Two dates have been adopted. (a) It has been assumed that 'effective annual input' will increase by 10 from the summer of 1970, owing to further expansion of existing courses or to the starting of new courses on the present pattern before then (paragraph 7.14); it is possible that this figure may be exceeded, at least in the short term (paragraphs 7.16 and 7.34). (b) The beginning of the next university quinquennium in 1972 marks a date from which new courses might otherwise begin. While some appointments would need to be made before the end of the present quinquennium to start from October 1972, the first year would be likely to be occupied largely in making further appointments, and in planning, selecting students and making other arrangements. It might not be more than marginally productive, though every effort should be made to make it otherwise. Hence the first fully effective output from new two-year courses (of the kind recommended in paragraphs 7.26 to 7.32) could be expected in the summer of 1975. 5C.32 Calculations therefore have been based upon increases in effective annual input (a) by 10 from 1970 as a consequence of some expansion in training arrangements before then, and otherwise (b) from 1975 as a consequence of new courses started in or after 1972. (8) Date for achieving the target ratio of 1 : 10,000 5C.33 Since any reasonable build-up must be gradual in some degree, 1990 has been regarded as the most remote date by which the target of 1 : 10,000 should be achieved (paragraph 5.29); 1980-90 would be optimal. *This simplified approach therefore assumes the exponential decrement of negative compound interest. The compounding period has been taken to be one year rather than any shorter interval. It is equivalent to assuming that the process of migration is a random one of constant probability with respect to total number in post at any time; hence it allows the estimates of paragraphs 5C.28 and 5C.29 to be compared.
**The calculations have been made backwards from 1965 over the number of years intervening to the end of each course - 19 years to 1946, 18 years to 1947 and so on. Column 10 gives the uniform annual decrement which when compounded yields the percentages in column 9, as reductions below 100% at the end of each course. Making the calculations in this way (a) effectively assumes that the figures in column 6 can be regarded as estimates of 'full-time equivalents'; (b) does not reflect the variation in the numbers in column 6; (c) is sensitive to the facts that the numbers in column 6 are small and that actual decrements can be only whole numbers. [page 150] [The following notes refer to the graph on the next page] Figure 5C.1 Numbers of educational psychologists 1965-1990; projections of different values of effective annual input from postgraduate training courses 1965-90, continued and extended to point of equilibrium between input and output to retirement and migration. Target numbers required for ratios of 1 : 10,000 schoolchildren based on the projected school population are shown in charts T1 and T2 (source: Statistics of Education 1966, Vol. 1, Table 44 (i) 'Pupils in school', London: HMSO, 1967, for years up to 1990). Projection 0: psychologists in service January 1965 showing reduction in numbers by retirement and migration. Projection 1: addition to 'Projection 0' of effective annual input of 30 per annum from September 1967 (with 20 in 1966). Projection 2: effective annual input of 'Projection 1' increased by 20 to 40 per annum from September 1970. Projection 3: effective annual input of 'Projection 2' increased by 20 to 60 per annum from September 1975 (i.e. to double that of 1966). Projection 4: effective annual input of 'Projection 2' increased by 50 to 90 per annum from September 1975 (i.e. to treble that of 1966). Projection 5: addition to 'Projection 4' of effective annual input of 20 from accelerated training programmes in each of the years 1970-74. The charts are based on the following assumptions, discussed in the text: (a) 35 years as the median length of working life from entry to retirement; (b) losses of -4% per annum owing to migration from local education authority service as educational psychologist (for all reasons other than normal retirement, e.g. change of occupation including marriage, voluntary retirement, death). Charts T1 and T2 have been projected beyond 1990, the last date included in Table 44 of Statistics of Education. Vol. 1, by extrapolating the linear trend over 1985-90. All numbers are equivalents at 1 January. [page 151] Figure 5C.1 Numbers of educational psychologists 1965-1990 [pages 152-3] Table 5C.4 Numbers of educational psychologists 1965-1990(a): projections of different values of effective annual input into local educational authority service from postgraduate training courses during 1965-90, extended to point of equilibrium between input and output to retirement and migration, and related to target numbers required for ratio of 1:10,000 schoolchildren. Basic assumptions: (a) length of working life to retirement 35 years (median value); (b) losses of -4% per annum owing to migration from local education authority service as educational psychologist (for all reasons other than normal retirement, e.g. change of occupation including marriage, voluntary retirement, death). [page 154] Calculations of effective annual inputs 5C.34 The outcomes of calculations on the basis of paragraphs 5C.8 to 5C.32 are exemplified in Figure 5C.1 (see also Table 5C.4). They show first (Projection 4) that an effective annual input of 90 from 1975 is needed in order to attain the ratio of 1 : 10,000 children in all schools by 1987 (paragraph 5.61). 5C.35 An effective annual input of 90 would be three times the present figure of 30 (paragraph 5C.16); neither maintenance of the current input (Projection 1) nor doubling it to 60 from 1975 (Projection 3) would be sufficient to attain the 1 : 10,000 target (paragraphs 5.58 to 5.60). 5C.36 Projection 5 includes the consequences of an additional input of 20 from accelerated programmes (paragraphs 7.34 to 7.37) in each of the five years 1970 to 1974 in order to reduce the acute shortage in the short term. Added to" the increase in the basic effective annual input from 30 to 40 in 1970 (Projection 2; paragraphs 5C.31 and 5.59), and to the further increase to 90 from 1975 (Projection 4), it would give ratios (a) of 1 : 17,400 in 1975 compared with 1 : 24,000 in 1965, (b)' of 1 : 10,000 in about 1985, and (c) of 1 : 9,200 in 1990 (paragraphs 5.62 and 5.63). 5C.37 The consequences in the very long term, on the basis of paragraphs 5C.8 to 5C.32, are illustrated by the extrapolations beyond 1990. The last members of the group in post on 1 May 1965 will not have retired until shortly after the year 2000 (Projection 0). Equilibrium between the inputs of Projections 4 and 5 and losses to retirement and migration would not come about until some ten years after that. The ratio of psychologists to schoolchildren in the very long term might therefore be about 1 : 8,500 (paragraph 5.61). Effects of different annual migration rates 5C.38 The projections of Figure 5C.1 have been based on the working value of -4% for annual migration rate (paragraph 5C.30). The consequences of higher and lower rates of -8% and -2% are illustrated in Table 5C.5. They have been applied to Projection 5 with (')11 other factors held constant and, in particular, the effective annual inputs at 1 January have been taken to be 20 in 1966 and 30 from 1967 (paragraphs 5C.15 and 5C.16), 40 from 1970 (paragraph 5C.31) and 90 from 1975 (paragraph 5C.34), together with the additional inputs of 20 in each of the five years 1970 to 1974 (paragraph 5C.36). A migration rate of -8% would lead to a ratio of about 1 : 12,500 children in all schools by 1990 and the target ratio of 1 : 10,000 would not be attained even in the very long term. A migration rate of -2% would lead to ratios of 1 : 10,000 in 1981, of 1 : 9,200 in 1990 and of about 1 :5,800 extrapolated into the remote future, forty to fifty years hence. A rate of -8% is still less than those for which we found evidence in paragraph 5C.28 and one of -2% is less than the median value of paragraph 5C.29. Moreover all the ratios that result from these calculations for 1990 would be within the limit of ratios up to 1 : 6,000 that have been recommended (see paragraphs 5.22 and 5.23); only in the very long term might this limit be reached. Effects of length of working life to normal retirement 5C.39 Length of working life to normal retirement has been taken to have the median value of 35 years (paragraph 5C.18). Effects of taking the higher value of 40 years have also been explored. At no point does the resulting increase in projected numbers of educational psychologists exceed some 5%. Variation in this factor by this amount is therefore very much less influential than the possible variations in migration rates. Moreover, the value of 40 years is an upper limit (see paragraph 5C.18). Conclusions on effective annual input 5C.40 The outcome of these explorations therefore is that a threefold increase from 1975 in the numbers of educational psychologists entering education services would in no sense be excessive; hence our firm conclusion that training capacity should be trebled by 1975 (paragraphs 5.64 and 5.66). Postgraduate training places needed to produce a given effective annual input 5C.41 For the reasons outlined in paragraph 5C.4 the number of postgraduate training places needs to be larger than the numbers expected to enter service. We have sought to estimate this factor from the data of Table 5C.1 for postgraduate training departments from 1945 to 1965. (9) 'Immediate migration' 5C.42 Over the twenty years covered by Table 5C.l, 28·6% of successful students did not start work as educational psychologists at the conclusion of their training (column 12), although small numbers did so [page 155] later. The proportion of these 'early migrants' was therefore substantial (paragraph 5.40), Opportunities for employment changed markedly over the twenty-year period, however, and the proportion has been less in recent years: 13.3% for the last seven years, from 1958 to 1965, in Table 5C.1. It is to be expected that the competing attractions of other kinds of work will always be influential. and this point has already been considered in relation to migration (paragraph 5C.22), Comparison of columns 12 and 10 of Table 5C.1 suggests that successful students are much more likely not to take up appointment at the end of their course, than they are to migrate once they have started work as educational psychologists, Hence a substantially higher figure is indicated for this 'immediate migration': 12.5% would appear to be conservative* in relation to the average of 13.3% for the last seven years in Table 5C.1. Table 5C.5 Effects of different annual migration rates on Projection 5: (1) the date at which the target ratio of 1 : 10,000 would be attained, and numbers of educational psychologists and ratios to children in all schools: (2) in 1990, and (3) in the very long term forty to fifty years hence 5C.43 Hence, 11.43 successful students are needed to produce an effective annual input of 10 into local education authority service, since it is to be expected that the latter will be only 87.5% of the former. (10) Drop-out and failure 5C.44 Columns 4 and 5 of Table 5C.1 show that out of a total of 304 students, 14 failed (4.6%), This figure is already low by comparison with rates of drop- out from undergraduate courses (14%: see footnote to Table 5.5), but a much lower rate is to be expected from postgraduate courses for which candidates are highly selected: 4% would therefore appear to be conservative, especially if this figure is applied over both years of two-year courses taken together, as well as to one year courses. 5C.45 Hence, 10.42 students have to be admitted for every 10 successful students (since the latter are expected to be only 96% of the former), (11) Vacancies 5C.46 Finally, columns 2 and 3 of Table 5C,1 show that out of the total of 347 places that were available from 1945 to 1965, 43 remained unfilled (12.4%). Vacancies on courses hitherto have largely been caused by difficulties that intending students have had in obtaining financial support. We hope that these difficulties will disappear almost completely if our recommendations are implemented, It is nevertheless to be expected that there will be an irreducible residual problem of candidates who accept a place and then withdraw at too late a stage for the place to be filled by another candidate, in spite of clearing house arrangements (paragraph 7.57), Allowing for a substantial improvement, therefore, to expect that 3% of places in all the postgraduate training departments might be lost as vacancies would appear to be conservative, 5C.47 Hence, 10.31 places are needed for every 10 students actually admitted (the latter being 97% of the former) , Relation between postgraduate training places and effective annual input 5C.48 Evidently the three factors of paragraphs 5C.43, 5C.45 and 5C.47 combine multiplicatively: the resultant product is 12.25 for the number of postgraduate training places needed to produce an effective annual input of 10 new educational psychologists into local education authority service, or 1.225 : 1. Total number of postgraduate training places needed 5C.49 The number of places that will need to be filled each year, therefore, in order to produce the effective *The effects both of 'immediate migration' and of 'migration', as discussed earlier in this appendix, are to some little extent counteracted by one or two compensating tendencies, There have been inputs of the following kinds: of some trained educational psychologists who did not enter local education authority service immediately on completing their training, but did so later; of others who left local education authority service but returned again after an interval. including some married women who returned to part-time or even full-time work; and of educational psychologists trained overseas or elsewhere in the United Kingdom, including holders of B.Ed. degrees of Scottish universities, some though not all of whom had been trained in child guidance and for work as educational psychologists. Our evidence, however, is that numbers of trained educational psychologists from all these sources have been small, and minute in terms of annual rates; we have no evidence that they will increase. We have not included any separate factor for such compensating influences, therefore, but have considered them to have received due allowance and to have been absorbed in the annual rates with which we have worked for 'migration' and 'immediate migration'. [page 156] annual input of 90 that we have recommended, will be 110. 5C.50 This figure does not allow however for our recommendation that two new courses should be two-year courses (paragraphs 7.26 to 7.32). We have envisaged that each would contribute an effective annual input of 20. On this basis, therefore, counting places in each year of two-year courses separately, the total number of places needed at anyone time would be 160. Sources of candidates 5C.51 Sources of candidates have been considered at length in the body of the Report and evaluated in relation to the number of postgraduate training places proposed. An honours degree in psychology is an essential qualification (paragraph 4.9). The number of honours graduates in psychology has increased from 200 in 1960 to 670 in 1967; it is expected to have increased further to about 1,000 in the United Kingdom by 1973 (paragraph 5.33); hence the total will approach ten times the 110 places in postgraduate training departments which the foregoing calculations imply to be necessary from 1975 (paragraph 5C.49). This source is clearly sufficient in principle. About 14% of graduates in the United Kingdom between 1960 and 1964 were reported to us as intending to enter educational psychology. It would be satisfactory if education were in fact to secure about this proportion of honours graduates (paragraph 5,3). But even if there were to be 135 to 140 applicants for postgraduate training from among graduates in the United Kingdom from 1973, the margin would be small indeed for ensuring that an adequate selection could be made of 110 appropriate candidates for postgraduate training in England and Wales (paragraph 5.34). Hence proposals are also made in the Report for improving the attractiveness of postgraduate training arrangements and careers in educational psychology. Their purpose is to ensure that this field will be able to compete with opportunities open to psychology graduates in other fields, and that it will attract not only sufficient numbers of applicants, but also a sufficient proportion of the ablest graduates (paragraphs 5.36 to 5.55). Conclusion 5C.52 We have described our calculations. We consider the conclusions that we have drawn from them to be fully justified if a ratio of educational psychologists to children in all schools of 1 : 10,000 is, on the average, to be achieved by education services in England and Wales between 1980 and 1990 (paragraphs 5.64 to 5.66, and 5C.1 and 5C.33 above). We also believe that it would be desirable, as we have said, that our estimates should be reviewed in not more than ten years time (paragraphs 5.57 and 5C.10 above). Provided that the necessary statistical information were to be collected, the larger body of data that then would be available should enable our projections to be both re-evaluated and refined. It would be a simple matter for a computer to be programmed to explore in further detail what we have done by more painstaking methods. Indeed, if the necessary records of statistical information were to be established and maintained, enabling estimates to be made directly of some of the factors we have had to estimate indirectly, projections could be made and up-dated much more often; and so they also could, under the same conditions, in the case of other professional workers in public services, including those to whom we have had occasion to refer in Chapter 5. [page 157]
Appendix 6A The number of educational psychologists required if all the children thought to need special educational treatment because of educational subnormality were to be psychologically examined
6A.1 We have considered whether responsibility for the psychological assessment of all educationally subnormal children should be carried by educational psychologists. It seems to us that the key question is not one of advisability, but of practicability.
6A.2 It has been suggested that between 10% and 15% of the school population need special educational treatment because they are educationally subnormal.* Each year about 800,000 children enter the schools of England and Wales at the present time.** The lower of the two incidence limits, i.e. 10%, means that about 80,000 children per age group possibly require a specialised form of education for this reason. Identification of these 80,000 in each age group ought to occur early in their school careers, so that appropriate education can be arranged for them; but whenever it occurs the effect is a need to identify 80,000 children annually,
6A.3 There would be the following implications if identification through individual examinations were to be undertaken by educational psychologists. Ten examinations per week would fully occupy one psychologist. This estimate includes not only the time required for psychological assessments, which may have to be spread over more than one occasion, but also the time necessarily involved in consultations with school staff, discussions with parents, travelling, and the preparation of reports. During a school year, 400 such examinations could be carried out, so that about 200 psychologists would be required for this work with 80,000 children.
6A.4 This estimate does not take into account, however, the number of children who would be put forward, who would be found not to be in need of special educational treatment. but who would still need to be examined. Nor does it allow for regular follow-up work with children identified in earlier years; this work probably represents at least as heavy a demand on educational psychologists' time as the initial identification. For these additional reasons the number of educational psychologists required would need to be at least 400.
6A.5 It would clearly be unrealistic to expect educational psychologists to undertake the whole of this work at present, when they have many other commitments and their numbers are small. It does not necessarily follow that educational psychologists should not undertake more of this work in future. However, the best use of their.services implies that they should be responsible now f15'r psychological assessments of children whose need for special educational treatment is particularly uncertain, and in other special cases.
*For discussions of these incidence figures see D.G. Pritchard, Education and the Handicapped, p. 214. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1963; S. Jackson, Special Education in England and Wales, p. 12. London: Oxford University Press, 1966.
**In January 1966 there were 749,850 children aged five in all schools in England and Wales (97.9% of the 766,000 estimated by the Government Actuary for the five-year old age-group); 792,000 children were estimated in the four year old age-group, 819,000 in the three year old, and 836,000 in the two year old, Statistics of Education 1966, Part 1, Table 5. London: H.M.S.O., 1967. [page 158]
Appendix 6B Special needs in Wales
68.1 The work of educational psychologists in Wales is essentially similar to that of their colleagues in England, but there are differences arising from the need to use two languages because some Welsh people are bilingual to varying degrees.
68.2 (a) Communication. Educational psychologists need to communicate easily, both with children and with their parents. A child whose first language is Welsh is likely to be more at home in the language of the hearth than in English; some parents too, particularly in the west and north of Wales, will be more at ease in Welsh. Welsh local education authorities should therefore have on their staff at least one Welsh-speaking educational psychologist. Monoglot English psychologists working in Wales should be aware of the need to call on the services of their Welsh-speaking colleagues.
(b) Assessment. It is much more difficult to make a fair assessment of the psychological and educational development of a Welsh-speaking child using tests and techniques which are administered in English, no matter how appropriate they may be under other circumstances. A small range of standardised tests in Welsh need to be designed and constructed. Prawf Deallusrwydd ar gyfer Plant Cymraeg* is an example of pioneer efforts in this direction.
(c) Research. Research into bilinguialism in Wales has produced interesting results. New work - in the field of language growth for example - accentuates the need for additional research. New projects should be as concerned with applications as with fundamental research: the study of the problems of handicapped children who are bilingual is an example of a field which has scarcely been touched. Educational psychologists have an important part to play in such investigations.
68.3 There are many issues which are seen differently when viewed against a bilingual background. We believe that three main considerations in Wales should be:
*'An intelligence test for Welsh-speaking children'; an adaptation into Welsh of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, re-standardised in North Wales as a result of a research project sponsored by the Welsh Hospital Board. (See Primary Education in Wales (the Gittins Report), para 25.5.5, London: H.M.S.O., 1967.)
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